Economic Impacts of the Possible China–US Trade War

This article uses a multi-country global general equilibrium (GE) model to numerically simulate the effects of possible China–US trade wars. We introduce an endogenous trade imbalance structure with trade cost into the model which helps to explore both tariff and non-tariff trade war effects. Our simulation results show that China will be significantly hurt by the China–US trade war, but negative impacts are affordable. The US can gain under unilateral sanction measures to China, but will lose if China takes retaliation measures. Comparing the effects under mutual trade war, China will lose more than the US. Introducing non-tariff barrier trade wars will intensify the negative effects, and comparatively negative effects to China are larger than to the US. Mexico’s involvement in trade war with the US will strengthen the negative effects and comparatively hurt the US more. Under non-cooperative and cooperative Nash bargaining equilibrium, the US can gain more than China in trade war negotiation, which means the US has stronger bargaining power than China. Additionally, trade wars between China and the US will hurt most countries and the world especially in GDP and manufacturing employment, but benefit their welfare and trade.     

Market reactions to ECB policy innovations: A cross-country analysis

Regulators have been paying increasing attention to governing and steering market fluctuations, with their role in shaping the economic cycle being ever more crucial. The combined effect of the financial and sovereign debt crises, as well as the approach to the zero lower bound, has made actions even more pressing, forcing the European Central Bank to resort to unconventional instruments to revive the economies and counter deflationary pressures. By using a combined event study and panel regression methodology, we investigate whether European Monetary Union equity markets react heterogeneously to standard and non-standard European Central Bank policy innovations. Our results show that conventional policies unevenly affect financial indices in the Eurozone and, hence, are bound to generate asymmetries that reflect on real economies, while unconventional measures, albeit with different intensities, exercise a homogeneous pressure on all markets. Our evidence highlights the beneficial impact of unconventional measures and suggests that they can play a useful role even in non-crisis times.     

Employer-provided training,innovation and skills in post-Soviet countries

This paper analyzes the extent of employer-provided training in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Ukraine and investigates its relationship with innovation, having international business contacts, use of computers at work, reported skills shortages and other firm characteristics. It contributes to the literature by examining different types of training – initial on-the-job learning, more formal in-house training and external training, which is provided by firms to two categories of workers – white- and blue-collar workers. After controlling for a range of firm characteristics, we find a positive link between technological innovation and intensity of training of all types provided to white-collar workers that points to the technology-skills complementarity. Furthermore, the level of computer use at work is a significant determinant of the incidence and intensity of external training provided to white-collar and blue-collar workers.     

同群效应与公司研发*——来自中国的证据

本文研究了“同群公司”的研发支出对公司自身研发行为的影响。研究发现，同群公司研发支出越多，公司自身研发支出也越多。进一步研究发现，在公司与同群公司地理距离较近或同群公司分析师覆盖程度较高情况下，同群公司研发支出与公司自身研发支出的正相关关系更强。此外，同群公司研发支出会提高公司自身研发支出与未来业绩的正相关程度。研究表明，公司会学习同群公司的研发决策，进而改变其自身研发决策，呈现显著的研发支出同群效应；且公司信息解读成本较低时，研发支出同群效应更为显著。本文不仅丰富了关于研发支出影响因素的研究，还拓展了对研发溢出效应的研究。本文的研究结论对公司制定研发决策具有重要指导意义。     

LEADERSHIP IN CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION: CONSEQUENCES AND INCENTIVES

Initiatives in favor of unilateral action on climate change are frequently challenged by concerns over free riding. Nevertheless, we observe an increasing number of unilateral efforts at different administrative levels and in different parts of the world. Previous academic literature described various individual mechanisms where emissions abroad may increase or decrease as a reaction to unilateral emission reductions. In this paper, we collect a comprehensive set of both positive and negative reactions and analyze them in stylized models. This allows us to identify the most important characteristics that determine the potential of a leader to boost mitigation efforts abroad. We find that this potential depends on (i) a strong ability to generate knowledge through leadership, (ii) a high degree of credibility in the international community, and (iii) a similar economic structure to the most important emitters. While most effects are difficult to quantify, this comprehensive assessment suggests that leakage effects resulting from unilateral mitigation may well be outweighed by positive reactions.     

农户土地转出的影响因素研究*——基于土地流转补贴政策效用的视角

[目的]基于安徽省蚌埠市的调研数据,实证研究土地流转补贴政策对土地转出的影响,分析土地流转补贴政策效用。[方法]文章根据国内外相关研究成果,结合调研地区的具体环境因素,提出研究假设,选取农户的家庭人口特征、社会经济特征和土地资源禀赋等变量,构建回归模型,运用SPSS统计软件分析农户土地转出的影响因素及土地流转补贴政策的效用。[结果]直接影响农户土地转出的因素包括非农就业、非农收入、农民离乡进城务工条件和土地资源禀赋等,农民获得的土地流转补贴占家庭总收入的比重非常小,对农户转出土地的意愿起不到显著促进作用。[结论]因此,促进土地有序流转必须把土地流转补贴等财政扶持资金转移到基本生产设施的建设上,改善农业生产经营条件,增强新型农业经营主体的土地转入积极性;通过创造非农就业机会,增加非农收入,完善农村社会保障服务体系,促进农民工市民化等措施,弱化农民对土地的依赖,从而增强农民转出土地的积极性。     

Economic policy uncertainty and stock price crash risk

This paper studies the impact of economic policy uncertainty on stock price crash risk using data from China. We develop a new index to measure Chinese economic policy uncertainty and find that economic policy uncertainty has a remarkable positive effect on stock price crash risk. However, the effect reverses later. The results also indicate that the positive effect of economic policy uncertainty on stock price crash risk is more prominent for state‐owned enterprises. Moreover, this effect is more prominent for firms with higher information asymmetry and firms with greater disagreement among investors, indicating that economic policy uncertainty affects crash risk through two mechanisms: managers’ concealment of bad news and investors’ heterogeneous beliefs.     

智能生产与服务网络下新型产业创新平台运行模式研究

在智能生产与服务网络化背景下，传统产业创新平台技术含量低、创新积极性不高、持续升级能力弱、成果转化效率低等矛盾日益凸显。针对该问题，提出了智能生产与服务网络下的新型产业创新平台运行模式。首先从科技支撑、智能生产与服务组织、感知与信息传输、基础设施和平台规制角度研究其组织结构，并从个性化定制、模块化集成和全程价值链供给角度研究其功能结构；然后从协同创新、导向、风险和产业生态进化角度研究其保障机制；最后从市场化角度研究其运行路径。通过研究智能生产与服务网络下的新型产业创新平台运行模式，为实施传统产业高端化、推动行业进步、促进经济发展提供参考与借鉴。     

Sustainable development carbon pricing initiative and voluntary environmental disclosures quality

Although corporate environmental disclosures have been researched extensively, empirical evidence regarding the indirect impact of carbon pricing on firms' voluntary disclosures is scarce. The objective of this study is to identify the indirect impact of carbon pricing initiatives on the voluntary environmental disclosures (VEDs) of electricity generating companies, analyzed through the lens of institutional theory. This study adds to the growing literature on the determinants of VED, investigating the impact of adoption of the Global Reporting Initiative and ISO 14001 on VED. Secondary data were collected from 2015 annual reports and/or standalone sustainability reports of electricity generating companies from 53 countries around the world. Content analysis approach was adopted for measuring the extent of the quality of VED. Findings of multiple regression analysis suggest that there is an indirect institutional impact of carbon pricing on the quality of VED. This study also finds that, as the form of nongovernment guidance, the Global Reporting Initiative adoption and ISO 14001 certification also have an institutional influence on the VED. VED is also affected by company size although this study reveals no significant relationship of leverage with VED.     

Effective HR implementation: the impact of supervisor support for policy use on employee perceptions and attitudes

Abstract

Effective implementation of human resource (HR) policies appears to depend on supervisors’ active involvement in the intervention process. Following recommendations of a recent intervention evaluation framework, we examine how perceived supervisor support during the implementation of a work-life intervention helps to change participants’ perceptions of organizational family supportiveness, and how this ultimately changes participants’ engagement and turnover intentions. A three-wave longitudinal study in a professional services firm (N = 434) that has formally involved supervisors in the process of a work-life intervention showed support for our study hypotheses. Supervisor support for policy use influenced employees’ positive work–home culture perceptions, which in turn strengthened employees’ work engagement and diminished their turnover intentions over time. We discuss practical implications and give recommendations on the future design of HR interventions and related policies.